Optimalisasi Persediaan Material Packing dengan Analisis ABC, Metode Peramalan, dan Economic Order QuantityMarchello Pamolango1, Albertus Daru Dewantoro2Email corresponding author: pamolango2005@gmail.com1,2Darma Cendika Catholic UniversityArticle history: Received: 16 Februari 2026 | Revised: 13 April 2026 | Accepted: 14 April 2026Abstract. The management of packing material inventory in flexible packaging often faces high investment value, inaccurate demand planning, and inefficient ordering, creating a research gap in selecting an integrated optimization method. This study aims to determine material requirements and optimal order quantities to minimize total inventory cost. The methodology integrates ABC Analysis for material classification, Forecasting techniques to predict demand, and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) to determine the most economical order size. The results show that Plywood is classified as category A due to its dominant investment value. Forecasting evaluation using MAPE and Tracking Signal indicates that the 3-period Weighted Moving Average provides the highest accuracy with the lowest error. The EOQ calculation produces an optimal order quantity of 3,304 units for Plywood Multi 0280x0280x09 dia 77, significantly reducing inventory cost. The integration of ABC, Forecasting, and EOQ improves inventory efficiency and supports more reliable production planning..Keywords – Inventory Management; Packing Material; ABC Analysis; Demand ForecastingAbstrak. Pengelolaan persediaan packing material pada industri flexible packaging sering menghadapi masalah tingginya nilai investasi, ketidakakuratan perencanaan kebutuhan, dan ketidaktepatan jumlah pemesanan, sehingga memunculkan kebutuhan metode optimasi terintegrasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan kebutuhan material dan jumlah pemesanan optimal untuk meminimalkan total biaya persediaan. Metode yang digunakan meliputi Analisis ABC untuk klasifikasi material, peramalan untuk memprediksi kebutuhan, dan Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) untuk menentukan jumlah pemesanan paling ekonomis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan material Plywood termasuk kategori A karena kontribusi nilai investasi tertinggi. Evaluasi peramalan menggunakan MAPE dan Tracking Signal menunjukkan metode Weighted Moving Average 3-periode memiliki akurasi terbaik dengan error terendah. Perhitungan EOQ menghasilkan jumlah pemesanan optimal sebesar 3.304 unit, yang mampu menurunkan biaya persediaan secara signifikan. Integrasi ketiga metode meningkatkan efisiensi persediaan dan mendukung perencanaan produksi yang lebih stabil.Kata Kunci – Manajemen Inventory; Packing Material; Analisis ABC, Peramalan PermintaanPendahuluan Industri flexible packaging memerlukan pengendalian persediaan yang tepat untuk menghindari kekurangan maupun kelebihan stok, menjaga kelancaran proses produksi, menurunkan biaya operasional, serta memastikan aliran material pendukung tetap stabil. Pengelolaan persediaan yang efektif juga berkontribusi pada peningkatan efisiensi manufaktur, keberlanjutan operasional, dan penguatan ketahanan rantai pasok, sebagaimana disoroti dalam berbagai studi mengenai manajemen stok dan praktik keberlanjutan di sektor manufaktur ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.32672/jse.v8i2.5149","ISSN":"2528-3561","abstract":"Persediaan merupakan bahan yang ditempatkan pada suatu tempat penyimpanan yang ditujuan untuk beberapa kepentingan. PT XYZ adalah perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang packaging. Dalam penentuan stok persediaan, perusahaan masih memakai dugaan yang terkadang tidak tepat sehingga menyebabkan kurang atau lebihnya bahan untuk produksi. Terdapat 3 metode dalam inventory control yang biasa digunakan yaitu metode safety stock, reorder point, dan analisis ABC. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui tingkat prioritas barang, lebih tepatnya bahan penunjang yang digunakan dalam proses produksi PT XYZ berdasarkan analisis ABC, serta membuat saran dan usulan nilai safety stock dan reorder point yang efisien dan optimal pada inventory dalam pengadaan bahan penunjang. Hasil yang didapatkan setelah melakukan pengolahan data adalah dengan analisis ABC dapat mengkategorikan material bahan penunjang terdapat total 12 jenis insert terbagi ke dalam 3 kelas klasifikasi. Pada kelas A terdapat 4 insert, pada kelas B terdapat 4 insert, pada kelas C terdapat 4 insert. Hasil perhitungan safety stock yang telah dilakukan, Label KPL Yupo 70/80 memerlukan persediaan pengaman paling banyak yaitu sebesar 6.869 pcs. Reorder point terbesar pada material Bahan Penunjang yaitu insert jenis Label KPL Yupo 70/80 yaitu sebesar 12.161 pcs.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Fadylla","given":"Ardhini Rhisnu","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Azizah","given":"Fahriza Nurul","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Serambi Engineering","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"5074-5082","title":"Pengendalian Persediaan dan Urutan Prioritas Bahan pada Proses Produksi Flexible Packaging di PT XYZ Berdasarkan Kualifikasi Analisis ABC","type":"article-journal","volume":"8"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=3f2957a6-4d62-4657-9a69-2e7fd9572f6c","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1afae398-b4c9-447f-afe6-f9edf9ad2d88"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[1]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[1]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Fadylla & Azizah, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[1],ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108674","ISSN":"0921-3449","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Haslinger","given":"Anna-sophie","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Nhu","given":"Trang T","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Cadena","given":"Erasmo","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Thomassen","given":"Gwenny","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Dewulf","given":"Jo","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Huysveld","given":"Sophie","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Resources, Conservation & Recycling","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"November 2025","issued":{"date-parts":[["2026"]]},"page":"108674","publisher":"Elsevier B.V.","title":"Resources , Conservation & Recycling Life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of emerging circular flexible plastic food and non-food packaging","type":"article-journal","volume":"226"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=a0d3b590-4e87-47bd-95ba-c96220292bcd","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=18a5d908-04b7-41cf-8e9c-0596b723666e"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[2]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[2]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Haslinger et al., 2026)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[2].Salah satu pendekatan yang sering digunakan untuk menentukan prioritas pengawasan material adalah analisis ABC ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.7454/jvi.v3i2.1073","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wahyuni","given":"Titis","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"title":"Penggunaan Analisis ABC Untuk Pengendalian Persediaan Barang Habis Pakai","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=d12213e8-d5dc-4952-96ee-fad50e2a87db","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1cf16f8f-f4ed-4108-a88a-e97860abbb7e"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[3]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[3]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wahyuni, 2015)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[3]. Metode ini mengelompokkan material berdasarkan nilai investasi dan tingkat konsumsinya sehingga perusahaan dapat memusatkan perhatian pada material kategori A yang memiliki kontribusi terbesar terhadap nilai persediaan. Beberapa penelitian seperti yang dilakukan oleh ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"In the supply of medicines in the pharmacy warehouse of Muhammadiyah Gresik Hospital, there has been drug void and expired date. This research was conducted by using descriptive qualitative research approach. Based on the analysis of ABC, the use of drugs in group A was 43 drugs or 7.75% of all drug supplies with 90323 items or 69.59% of total drug usage. Medicines belonging to group B are 78 types of drugs or 14.05% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 26371 items or 20.32% of total drug usage. While the drugs that include group C as much as 434 types of drugs or 78.25% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 13103 items or 10.09% of total drug usage. Based on analysis of ABC Investment classified as A is as much as 78 types of drugs or 14.5% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 250,733,719.00 or 69.28% of the total drug investment. The drugs belonging to group B are as many as 135 types of drugs or 24.32% of all drugs with an investment value of Rp 82,624,061.00 or 22.83% of the total drug investment. While the drugs belonging to group C are as many as 342 types of drugs or 61.63% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 28,513,928.00 or 7.89% of the total drug investment. Based on EOQ analysis then the optimum order amount from Group A with high investment value varies from 1-2565 items. While according to ROP analysis obtained point reorder/time reorder for 78 drugs that belong to group A with high investment value varies from 1-2861 item.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Nisa","given":"anna fitrotun","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Manajerial","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"17-24","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Obat berdasarkan Metode ABC, EOQ dan ROP (Studi Kasus Pada Gudang Farmasi Rumah Sakit Muhammadiyah Gresik)","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e7a16e41-913c-4219-8e95-f98cd74b6b33","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dc444c12-f154-42fc-8272-4354b6872a51"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[4]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[4]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Nisa, 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[4], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.56521/teknika.v9i2.960","ISSN":"2460-1608","abstract":"PT ABC sebagai perusahaan manufaktur yang menghasilkan produk berupa elemen kontrol saklar, dalam proses penentuan stok persediaan bahan pendukung kemasan produk belum melakukan tingkat pengawasan yang tepat karena banyak terdapat items penting terpakai percuma dalam pengiriman barang dan sering terjadinya kekosongan items untuk kebutuhan pengiriman barang. Satu diantara metode yang dapat digunakan dalam pengendalian persediaan adalah analisis ABC. Penelitian ini mempunyai tujuan guna mengidentifikasi pengawasan stok persediaan bahan pendukung kemasan produk yang digunakan dalam proses pengiriman hasil produksi PT ABC kepada konsumen dengan menggunakan analisis ABC yaitu membaginya kedalam tiga kelompok yaitu kelompok A dengan pengawasan ketat, kelompok B dengan pengawasan menengah, dan kelompok C dengan pengawasan rendah. Hasil yang didapatkan dari pengolahan data menggunakan analisis ABC adalah membagi 18 items kebutuhan bahan pendukung kemasan produk menjadi 5 items dalam kelompok A, 4 items kelompok B, dan 9 items dalam kelompok C.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Firdaus","given":"Ricky Muhammad","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hadining","given":"Aulia Fashanah","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Teknika STTKD: Jurnal Teknik, Elektronik, Engine","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"288-297","title":"Analisis Abc Dalam Menentukan Prioritas Pengawasan Kebutuhan Kemasan Produk Studi Kasus Di Pt Abc","type":"article-journal","volume":"9"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=901c1b48-6020-4cf3-8fda-ae762f580b2d","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=2716770a-0bf6-448e-ab4d-a3ab030f9846"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[5]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[5]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Firdaus & Hadining, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[5], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.25273/capital.v2i2.3988","ISSN":"2598-9022","abstract":"<p>U.D Mayong Sari Kabupaten Probolinggo is a business engaged in the manufacture of food especially bread which has existed for 25 years was established on augst 18 1991 by Mr. Mayong Efendi. UD. Mayong Sari previously not using the ABC method in classifying thu use of raw materias. ABC method of inventory control is a technique by observing groups of goods according to the level of importance of each group of goods. Group items in ABC Analisis based on the total value of sales in a year. The purpose of this study was to determine the classification or types of raw materials what is included in group A, B, C in the ABC analysis. with ABC method can be known raw materials with the highest invesment, medium, and low turnover of the raw marerial based on usage. Type of row material product umit is made up of nine types of components. Based on the results if the data then these components can be categorized in three catagories: category A, category B, and category C. Of the nin types of componentse calculated, based on Table 3, then those in category A are 2 types of components ie flour and butter because the cumulative percentage of absorption of funds is less than or equal to 80%, whereas the cumulative percentage item items of goods less than or more than 20%, category B amounts to 2 types of components ie sugar and beans Both types of components because the cumulative percentage item type of goods less than or more than 30%,and 5 types of components included in category C, namely Stem Milk, Chocolate bar, Egg, Strawbery Jam and Banana, the five components are classified C class which has a cumulative percentage item type of goods more than 50%.. Wherein category A class is the most importand raw material in the production process, the control needs to be looked at more.</p><p><br />Keywords: control supplies, ABC method, Inventory</p>","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Junaidi","given":"Junaidi","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Capital: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"158","title":"Penerapan Metode Abc Terhadap Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Pada Ud. Mayong Sari Probolinggo","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=f0af7549-0981-47dc-8095-2177307cae6d","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=7b088b56-0a1e-43ad-bb95-e1a940203ebc"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[6]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[6]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Junaidi, 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[6]. menunjukkan bahwa klasifikasi tersebut efektif dalam membantu perusahaan mengenali material kritis yang membutuhkan pengawasan lebih intensif. Penggunaan analisis ABC juga terbukti mampu mengurangi pemborosan dan meningkatkan efektivitas perencanaan pengadaan sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.32672/jse.v8i2.5149","ISSN":"2528-3561","abstract":"Persediaan merupakan bahan yang ditempatkan pada suatu tempat penyimpanan yang ditujuan untuk beberapa kepentingan. PT XYZ adalah perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang packaging. Dalam penentuan stok persediaan, perusahaan masih memakai dugaan yang terkadang tidak tepat sehingga menyebabkan kurang atau lebihnya bahan untuk produksi. Terdapat 3 metode dalam inventory control yang biasa digunakan yaitu metode safety stock, reorder point, dan analisis ABC. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui tingkat prioritas barang, lebih tepatnya bahan penunjang yang digunakan dalam proses produksi PT XYZ berdasarkan analisis ABC, serta membuat saran dan usulan nilai safety stock dan reorder point yang efisien dan optimal pada inventory dalam pengadaan bahan penunjang. Hasil yang didapatkan setelah melakukan pengolahan data adalah dengan analisis ABC dapat mengkategorikan material bahan penunjang terdapat total 12 jenis insert terbagi ke dalam 3 kelas klasifikasi. Pada kelas A terdapat 4 insert, pada kelas B terdapat 4 insert, pada kelas C terdapat 4 insert. Hasil perhitungan safety stock yang telah dilakukan, Label KPL Yupo 70/80 memerlukan persediaan pengaman paling banyak yaitu sebesar 6.869 pcs. Reorder point terbesar pada material Bahan Penunjang yaitu insert jenis Label KPL Yupo 70/80 yaitu sebesar 12.161 pcs.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Fadylla","given":"Ardhini Rhisnu","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Azizah","given":"Fahriza Nurul","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Serambi Engineering","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"5074-5082","title":"Pengendalian Persediaan dan Urutan Prioritas Bahan pada Proses Produksi Flexible Packaging di PT XYZ Berdasarkan Kualifikasi Analisis ABC","type":"article-journal","volume":"8"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1afae398-b4c9-447f-afe6-f9edf9ad2d88","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=3f2957a6-4d62-4657-9a69-2e7fd9572f6c"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[1]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[1]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Fadylla & Azizah, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[1]. Sejalan dengan itu, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30988/jmil.v4i2.510","ISSN":"2622-528X","abstract":"AbstractThis study aims to evaluate company policy in determining raw material ordering rates which are then compared with the EOQ, POQ, and Min-Max methods. This research uses a quantitive case study method using data obtained from the company. Forecasting is done using WinQSB and MAD, MSE and MAPE software for forecasting accuracy. Based on data processing, the data shows the horizontal pattern and the chosen forecasting method is the Simple Average method. Research shows the EOQ method has an order quantity of 1192 units / order with an order frequency of 11 times a year and has the smallest total inventory cost of the three methods compared which is Rp 269,520,852,781 or almost 50% lower than the total costs incurred by the company using the current method. ROP point has a value of 3395 units with a safety stock value of 106 units.AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kebijakan perusahaan dalam menentukan tingkat pemesanan bahan baku yang kemudian dibandingkan dengan metode EOQ, POQ dan Min-Max. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode studi kasus kuantitatif dengan menggunakan data yang diperoleh dari perusahaan. Peramalan dilakukan menggunakan perangkat lunak WinQSB dan MAD, MSE dan MAPE untuk akurasi peramalan. Berdasarkan pengolahan data, data menunjukkan pola horizontal dan metode peramalan yang dipilih adalah metode Simple Average. Penelitian ini menunjukkan metode EOQ memiliki jumlah pesanan 1192 unit / pesanan dengan frekuensi pemesanan 11 kali setahun dan memiliki total biaya persediaan terkecil dari ketiga metode yang dibandingkan yaitu Rp 269.520.852 atau hampir 50% lebih rendah dari total biaya yang dikeluarkan oleh perusahaan dengan metode saat ini. Titik ROP memiliki nilai 3395 unit dengan nilai stok pengaman 106 unit.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Arif","given":"zahra zayyina yustisia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sukarno","given":"Iwan","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Manajemen Industri dan Logistik","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"138-145","title":"Evaluasi kebijakan persediaan bahan baku kantong semen untuk mengurangi biaya persediaan (Studi kasus: PT Solusi Bangun Indonesia Tbk)","type":"article-journal","volume":"4"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=2ef5e0b3-82fe-4a21-89f3-73bc3d848d7b","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=071f01a2-8d47-4ee1-b6b8-6c003bd0ea0d"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[7]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[7]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Arif & Sukarno, 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[7] menegaskan bahwa klasifikasi yang dilakukan secara tepat dapat meminimalkan risiko ketidaktersediaan bahan baku bernilai tinggi, sementara ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.26593/jrsi.v8i1.3154.9-18","ISSN":"02161036","abstract":"The focus of this research is to analyze the production process queuing system at one of the stages of production of swiftlet nest in analytical and simulation. The purpose of this research is to obtain the model and characteristics of the queue system at the Finishing-2. The analysis uses data on the rate of arrival and the rate of service based on real observation and determines the probability distribution of data between arrival time and service time using the Easyfit 3.0 program, to get the model of the queuing system is obtained. After the model obtained, analytic and simulation analysis is carried out using the Queuing System Simulation (QSS) module in the WINQSB software. The results of the queuing system characteristics in the analytical and simulation have a significant difference, because the distribution of time between arrivals and service times used in analytical calculations is G (general), while the simulation uses a distribution that refers to a particular type of distribution according to the results of the Easyfit program. Simulation is carried out with the FIFO and SIRO queue disciplines. The simulation results show that 91% of the characteristics of the queue system in the two queue disciplines do not have a significant difference. Moreover, it has also been done a comparison between the characteristics of the queuing system in two different work areas namely Room A and Room B&C, based on the simulation results, the results show 58% of the characteristics of the queuing system have a significant difference, this is due to differences in service time between the two work areas. Thus the purpose of this research has been achieved which is obtained by the queue model (G/G/c):(FIFO/∞/∞), and also obtained system performance improvements, in the form of waiting time in the queue where the waiting time in Room B&C is smaller than Room A. Keywords: Queuing, Arrival, Service, Production, Simulation.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Listiyani","given":"Rika","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Linawati","given":"Lilik","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sasongko","given":"Leopoldus Ricky","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"9-18","title":"Analisis Proses Produksi Menggunakan Teori Antrian Secara Analitik dan Simulasi","type":"article-journal","volume":"8"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=cf756c0d-5b81-49d7-802e-f8e6a4eccdf5","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=31ce5977-ca0c-4028-b220-4252d2ca636e"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[8]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[8]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Listiyani et al., 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[8] menekankan pentingnya kecukupan persediaan untuk menjaga kelancaran aliran proses produksi.Selain klasifikasi, perusahaan juga perlu memprediksi permintaan material secara akurat agar keputusan pengadaan dapat dilakukan secara tepat waktu. Berbagai studi mengungkapkan bahwa metode Forecasting seperti Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, dan Single Exponential Smoothing mampu memberikan gambaran kebutuhan yang lebih representatif berdasarkan pola historis ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31294/evolusi.v11i2.17267","ISSN":"2338-8161","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hayuningtyas","given":"Ratih Yulia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"EVOLUSI : Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"34-41","title":"Metode Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average Dalam Memprediksi Produksi Beras","type":"article-journal","volume":"11"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=d733e2ee-1b3a-4488-a009-21e34fed8854","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=48c1d398-299c-4024-9f71-6703cac3ab48"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[9]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[9]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Darwati & Hayuningtyas, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9]. Salah satunya ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.33365/jtk.v16i1.1484","ISSN":"1412-9663","abstract":"Inventory of goods is one of the very important sales activities, because it indirectly has an impact on customer satisfaction, it is possible that customers will feel disappointed if the goods they are looking for are not available because the stock is out of stock, if this happens it is very possible even until the customer loses. To avoid customer disappointment and maintain stock of goods so that they are always available when needed, it is important necessary to predict the inventory of goods in this case are brown envelopes at photocopy shops and office stationery F2. To be able to predict the inventory of these goods, research is carried out so that the stock of brown envelopes can always be available. In this study, the authors conducted a research on the estimated supply of brown envelopes which until now were sought after by customers at the store where we did research, namely the F2 photocopy and office stationery shop. In calculating inventory estimates, the author uses three methods, namely Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Simple Moving Average. Data processing using the Python programming language with Jupyter Notebook, from the prediction results using the three methods, it can be seen that the best method for photocopy shops and office stationery F2 is using the Exponential Smoothing method with α=0.1. The author hopes that the results of this study can provide input to shop owners in making decisions when they will add stock of brown envelopes in the next period. If this can be known before the stock runs out, the shop owner will be better prepared in deciding how much stock should be prepared to meet customer needs, and it is also not excessive to provide stock because if there is too much stock and it is not sold for a very long time, it can reduce the value of an item that can cause loss.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Marita","given":"Lita Sari","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Tekno Kompak","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2022"]]},"page":"56","title":"Prediksi Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing dan Simple Moving Average","type":"article-journal","volume":"16"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=705a9f90-5650-4c7e-82fc-e61885e02b2d","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=ebde4cdd-2d49-403e-908a-c7079d13a21b"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[10]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[10]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Marita & Darwati, 2022)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[10] melakukan Prediksi Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing dan Simple Moving Average.Temuan tersebut didukung oleh penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.52005/bisnisman.v3i1.43","ISSN":"2686-4789","abstract":"Convection Astaprint is a company engaged in the trousers textile industry which operates in Majalengka Regency. So far, Astaprint's convection in determining the sale of its products is only based on a benchmark from past sales data. In order to optimize the number of pants sales at Astaprint convection, a forecasting method is needed that can be used as a benchmark to determine the volume of products the company will sell in the future. There are several forecasting methods used, which are simple moving average, exponential smoothing and linear trend. The results of calculations that have been done using the simple moving average forecasting method, exponential smoothing and linear trend turned out to get the most accurate and accurate forecasting method to be applied by Astaprint convection is the linear trend forecasting method. Linear trend method has the lowest forecast error value compared to other forecasting methods, where the value of forecast error obtained is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) = 763.73, mean square error (MSE) = 963116.6, mean absolute percent error (MAPE) = 14,539%.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Awaluddin","given":"Robi","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Fauzi","given":"Resky","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Harjadi","given":"Dikdik","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Bisnisman : Riset Bisnis dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"12-18","title":"Perbandingan Penerapan Metode Peramalan Guna Mengoptimalkan Penjualan (Studi Kasus Pada Konveksi Astaprint Kabupaten Majalengka)","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=c86b79ae-3932-434d-b618-cc7a9fb8fa7b","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=96481523-5364-43b0-8e8a-7be414f73dcf"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[11]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[11]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Awaluddin et al., 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[11] dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 14,539%, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"ABSTRAK Toko Obat Bintang adalah salah satu toko obat yang ada di Geurugok. Toko obat Bintang sangat memerlukan peramalan penjualan obat untuk meningkatkan keuntungan dan menghindari terjadinya kelebihan maupun kekurangan persediaan jumlah obat. Adapun parameter atau alpha yang digunakan dalam meramalkan penjualan obat adalah alpha = 0.1, alpha = 0.2, alpha = 0.3, alpha = 0.4, alpha = 0.5, alpha = 0.6, alpha = 0.7, alpha = 0.8, dan alpha = 0.9. Single Exponential Smoothing melakukan perbandingan dalam menentukan nilai alpha, dengan mencari nilai alpha tersebut secara trial/acak sampai menemukan alpha yang memiliki error minimum dengan pencarian menggunakan metode MSE (Mean Square Error).","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Fachrurrazi","given":"Sayed","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"TECHSI-Jurnal Teknik Informatika","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"19-30","title":"Peramalan Penjualan Obat Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Pada Toko Obat Bintang Geurugok","type":"article-journal","volume":"7"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=fcd8d570-2f40-4e46-aa28-503fbc6b9304","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=cb321569-0f5c-45e4-80ab-69779255fdc5"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[12]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[12]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Fachrurrazi, 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[12] Weighted Moving Average dengan nilai RMSE 368617,362, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Muhammad","given":"Fadli","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Dewanta","given":"Aria","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2022"]]},"title":"Peramalan Penjualan Pupuk Urea Dengan","type":"article-journal","volume":"5"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=3706aa7b-86c8-4624-8d77-fd78de5576e1","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=94839dcb-1b3a-4813-9e56-ed808df31b3b"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[13]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[13]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Muhammad & Dewanta, 2022)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[13] yang menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan peramalan kuantitatif dapat meningkatkan ketepatan prediksi kebutuhan material. Penelitian lain oleh ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30591/smartcomp.v10i3.2887","ISSN":"2089676X","abstract":"The technology of buying and selling goods in managing goods in and out will provide convenience for the management in managing stock data, financial control and profit calculation that will be immediately known by stakeholders. Forecasting method is a method that is able to analyze several factors that are known to influence the occurrence of an event with a long grace period between the need for knowledge of an event to occur in the future and the time the event has occurred in the past. In a retail company, if this forecasting method is applied in the planning of goods management, the company will be assisted in the process of planning the sale of goods which is currently still being done by predicting the amount of sales of goods that will come without any calculation, causing excessive purchases of goods that can affect the stock of goods. Single exponential smoothing method is a development of the single moving averages method where the forecasting method is done by repeating calculations continuously using the latest data and each data is weighted. The single exponential smoothing method considers the weight of the previous data by giving weight to each data period to distinguish the priority of data. The single exponential smoothing method is a method used in short-term forecasting that is usually only 1 month ahead which assumes that the data fluctuates around a fixed mean value without consistent trends or growth patterns. The accuracy of the application of the single exponential method in forecasting sales of goods in this study with an alpha value of 0.1 on the MAPE calculation average is 2%.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ginantra","given":"Ni Luh Wiwik Sri Rahayu","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Anandita","given":"Ida Bagus Gede","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Smart Comp: Jurnalnya Orang Pintar Komputer","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"3","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"154-159","title":"Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Penjualan Benang","type":"article-journal","volume":"10"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=4012fb85-1163-4c01-acb1-2e04b9585bb9","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e0680d6f-9373-4c54-a1a0-7595653058a5"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[14]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[14]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Ginantra & Anandita, 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[14], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"[Forecasting for Clinker Production Planning with Exponential Smoothing Method in PT Semen Indonesia] By increasing the production target of clinker in PT Semen Indonesia, production planning should be done properly. So this far, materials planning and production section of PT Semen Indonesia has not used any tools or methods in determining the production planning. It may cause a significant difference between production planning and actual release. The occurrence of this difference may cause effects that may result in losses for the company, such as the case of overstock or stock out. This study aims to get an appropriate method as the basis or reference in production planning and to forecast a result that could be used in production planning. The method used in the production forecast of clinker is Exponential Smoothing with Trend. After the forecast calculation the method continues with forecasting errors analysis using six methods of forecasting errors analysis that are Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Square Error, Mean Forecast Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Cumulative Forecast Error and Tracking Signal. The forecast calculation results the 2016 clinker production will be at number of 10.811.000 tons.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Mahardika","given":"Adri Dharmesta","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Susanto","given":"Novie","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Industrial Engineering Online Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2017"]]},"page":"1-10","title":"Peramalan Perencanaan Produksi Terak Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing With Trend Pada Pt. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=fe575839-5ccd-4c2f-a99e-7f0cc3dd242f","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=611719e5-c879-4c29-8975-d89ce4641a51"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[15]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[15]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Mahardika & Susanto, 2017)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[15] juga memperkuat bukti bahwa pemilihan metode Forecasting yang sesuai sangat diperlukan terutama ketika permintaan bersifat fluktuatif. Penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31764/jtam.v3i1.764","ISSN":"2597-7512","abstract":"Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi metode terbaik pada sistem peramalan dengan menggunakan metode Moving Average (SMA, WMA, dan EMA) dan metode Naive. Pada tahap simulasi, kami menggunakan data jumlah kemiskinan penduduk Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tahun 2002-2018 untuk memprediksi data tahun 2019. Adapun, model dievaluasi untuk melihat tingkat akurasi masing-masing metode berdasarkan nilai MAD, MSE, RMSE dan MAPE. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi data dari metode-metode yang diuji, diketahui bahwa metode Naive paling akurat dengan hasil prediksi tahun 2019 sebesar 737.460 dengan MAD, MSE, RMSE dan MAPE berturut-turut sebesar 41.427,188; 2.711.468.146; 52.071,760; dan 0.043.\r \r Abstract: This study aims to predict the best method on the forecasting system using the Moving Average method (SMA, WMA, and EMA) and the Naive method. In the simulation phase, we used data on the Number of Poverty of the Population of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) in 2002-2018 to predict the Poverty of Population of the Province of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) in 2019. Meanwhile, the model was evaluated to see the accuracy of each method based on the value MAD, MSE, RMSE and MAPE. Based on the simulation results of the data from the methods tested, it can be seen that the Naive method is most accurate with the results of the 2019 prediction of 737,460 with MAD, MSE, RMSE and MAPE in the amount of 41.427,188; 2.711.468.146; 52.071,760; and 0.043.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Kumila","given":"Ais","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sholihah","given":"Baqiyatus","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Evizia","given":"Evizia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Safitri","given":"Nur","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Fitri","given":"Safama","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"JTAM | Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"65","title":"Perbandingan Metode Moving Average dan Metode Naïve Dalam Peramalan Data Kemiskinan","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=fdd1ebd8-cc9a-4167-a23b-faf563f80d7b","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=d39e2bc7-75cb-42e8-bf07-f3dce5e7bae6"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[16]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[16]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Kumila et al., 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[16] memperkuat untuk memilih metode mana yang terbaik pada sistem peramalan dengan menggunakan metode Moving Average. Pendekatan peramalan kuantitatif terbukti meningkatkan akurasi prediksi permintaan, yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai MAPE sebesar 5,481% pada metode Single Exponential Smoothing ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.36456/tibuana.6.1.6442.32-37","ISSN":"2622-2027","abstract":"Boy Delivery is a delivery service in the city of Lamongan which has been operating for about 4 years. Boy Delivery has an average of 12,000 demand per month. However, the high demand was not accompanied by good demand management, Boy Delivery often piled up and even rejected a number of demand due to the unavailability of drivers at that time, this was due to an incorrect prediction of demand. Therefore this research was conducted to help forecast future demand using the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing methods. Of the three methods, the Single Exponential Smoothing method was obtained as the best method with the most accurate results with a smaller error of 5.481%.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hidayatullah","given":"Muhammad Asyrof","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Rahmawati","given":"Nur","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Tibuana","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"32-37","title":"Application of the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Methods For Forecasting Demand At Boy Delivery","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=c182d80e-94f4-414c-8efe-f8573f60314a","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dfd1717e-d764-423a-bfbe-072d50cc7140"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[17]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[17]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Hidayatullah & Rahmawati, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[17]. Hasil penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"… Nilai parameter α yang optimal untuk metode Single pada peramalan … di DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing … The SImple Exponential Smoothing Model …","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Romaita","given":"Dzar","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Bachtiar","given":"Fitra Abdurrachman","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Furqon","given":"Muhammad Tanzil","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (J-PTIIK) Universitas Brawijaya","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"11","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"10387","title":"Perbandingan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Produk Olahan Daging Ayam Kampung (Studi Kasus : Ayam Goreng Mama Arka)","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=3a660895-af9c-4f14-83b6-43389b7f5339","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=f4f4b59b-fb84-45eb-ae4d-fa6214cb1c40"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[18]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[18]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Romaita et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[18] menunjukkan bahwa penerapan metode peramalan kuantitatif dapat membantu dalam meningkatkan ketepatan peramalan permintaan produk. Selain itu, kontribusi penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"Semakin meningkatnya target produksi semen oleh PT Semen Indonesia maka perencanaan produksi harus dilakukan dengan baik. Selama ini seksi perencanaan bahan dan produksi belum menggunakan tools atau metode yang pasti dalam menetapkan perencanaan produksi, sehingga memungkinkan terjadi perbedaan yang sign * ifikan antara rencana produksi dalam Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Perusahaan (RKAP) dengan release aktual. Terjadinya perbedaan yang signifikan ini dapat menyebabkan dampak yang dapat menimbulkan kerugian bagi perusahaan seperti contohnya terjadi overstock maupun stock out. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari metode peramalan yang tepat sebagai dasar atau acuan dalam perencanaan produksi dan mendapatkan hasil peramalan yang dapat digunakan dalam perencanaan produksi. Dalam melakukan peramalan, terdapat beberapa tahap yang harus dilakukan untuk mendapatkan hasil peramalan yang baik. Setelah peramalan, dilakukan analisis kesalahan untuk mendapatkan kesalahan yang paling kecil, Berdasarkan dari data historis, peramalan dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode exponential smoothing. Dari hasil pengolahan yang dilakukan, didapatkan hasil 15048 (ribuan ton) untuk produksi semen tahun 2016 di PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Abstra ct [ Forecasting for Cement Production Planning with Exponential Smoothing Method in PT Semen Indonesia] By increasing the production target of cement in PT Semen Indonesia, production planning should be done properly. So this far, in materials planning and production section of PT Semen Indonesia has not used any tools or methods in determining the production planning. It may cause a significant difference between production planning and actual release. The occurrence of this difference may cause effects that may result in losses for the company, such as the case of averstock or stockout.This study aims to get an appropriate method as the basis or reference in production planning and to forecast a result that could be used in production planning. In doing a forecast, there are several steps that should be done to get better forecast results.Based on the historical data, exponential smoothing method is used for the forecasting. By the result, 15048 (thousand tons) of cement should be produced in 2016 for PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. * Penulis Penanggung Jawab","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Saputro","given":"Agil","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Purwanggono","given":"Bambang","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Industrial Engineering Online Jurnal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"4","issued":{"date-parts":[["2016"]]},"page":"1-7","title":"Peramalan Perencanaan Produksi Semen dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing pada PT. Semen Indonesia","type":"article-journal","volume":"5"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=6ae3a255-61ed-4694-8748-4f0c14ad3edc","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=82e3882f-16b5-4434-a5c4-23a50bfa83af"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[19]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[19]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Saputro & Purwanggono, 2016)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[19], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30737/jatiunik.v7i2.5495","ISSN":"2597-6257","abstract":"JNE Kopma UNY's logistics demand increases 2% per week, the manual courier allocation system is unable to keep up, predictions are accurate and real-time is needed. However, there is no exact accuracy for this case. The study was conducted to determine the accuracy of the smallest Mean Percentage Error (MPE) at JNE Kopma UNY by observing sales data for 2022 to predict demand. The data was analyzed using the Naive Approach, SMA and WMA methods, then measured using the MPE to determine the best forecasting method. The software used is Microsoft Excel 2016. The 3 Month (SMA) produces the highest sales prediction (Rp. 38,668,850) for January 2023 compared to Naive Approach (Rp. 35,086,330) and 3 Month WMA (Rp. 37,993,380). 3 Month SMA is proven to be superior with the lowest MPE (12.07%) and consistent performance. Naive Approach is inaccurate (MPE 20.26%) and 3 Month WMA performance is unstable (MPE 14.27%). This research recommends 3 Month SMA for JNE Kopma UNY to increase the accuracy of sales predictions and optimize stock. Opportunities for further research are open regarding the application of 3 Month SMA in various contexts.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wulan","given":"Nanda cahya","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Riani","given":"lilia pasca","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"JATI UNIK : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik dan Manajemen Industri","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2024"]]},"page":"149-160","title":"Perbandingan Pendekatan Metode Peramalan Naive Approach, Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Prediksi Penjualan JNE Kopma UNY","type":"article-journal","volume":"7"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=deab0693-27aa-4449-9996-9ff022a1a586","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=5e3628e0-2b6a-4368-980f-81ee519d4e87"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[20]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[20]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wulan & Riani, 2024)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[20] menunjukkan bahwa peramalan yang akurat dapat mendukung strategi pengadaan yang lebih efisien. Lebih jauh, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"ISSN":"2087-5304","abstract":"In the business world Forecasting is one of the most important factors that must be applied in a business. Forecasting is a method for estimating a value in the future by using past data effectively and efficiently. This research was conducted at Warnet Bulian City In this study, the author discusses the analysis of forecasting (Forecasting) sales of services at the Bulian City internet cafe in Muara Bulian. Forecasting is done using three methods namely the MOVA (Moving Average) method, the WMA (Weight Moving Average) method and the Exponential Smoothing Method by comparing the smallest error rate Forecasting using the MA (Moving Average) method for 3 periods is predicted the level of profit to be gained by Bulian City Warnet in August amounted to. 11,117,833 with MAD 1,487,370. Forecasting using the Weigh Moving Averages (WMA) 3 method is forecasted at 12,287,300 with MAD Error 3,016,016 while the forecast using the double exponential smoothing method is 13,522,572 with MAD 5513617,364 then the forecasting method chosen is the Single Exponential Smoothing method with the Forecast value in August 2018 9,581.69 for the The Forecast Error is MAD of 1,378,375 which is the method with the smallest error rate.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Fauziah","given":"","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ningsih","given":"Yulia Istia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Setiarini","given":"Eva","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"61-67","title":"Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 10(1): 61-67 Analisis Peramalan (Forecasting) Penjualan Jasa Pada Warnet Bulian City di Muara Bulian","type":"article-journal","volume":"10"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=6b47282f-aa50-41e4-9c04-14b9a3694282","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=875a38e8-d634-44f4-9981-1768a648cad8"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[21]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[21]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Fauziah et al., 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[21] menegaskan bahwa estimasi permintaan yang tepat memungkinkan perusahaan menghindari terjadinya penumpukan material sekaligus memastikan ketersediaan stok sesuai kebutuhan produksi.Setelah kebutuhan material diprediksi, perusahaan perlu menentukan jumlah pemesanan optimal. Model Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) banyak digunakan untuk memperkirakan jumlah pembelian ideal dengan biaya minimum ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30862/cm-bj.v2i2.47","ISSN":"2622-9951","abstract":"Controlling and determining of inventory is an important thing in order to produce efficiently and able to make smooth sales. The purpose of this research is to know an analysis of controlling raw material inventoriesin the manufacture of brick by using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method to increase efficiency of the total inventory costin Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi. The raw material of brick is rough sand and cements.\r Type of case study research through a qualitative approach by means of interviews, observation and documentation. Case study on a wood booth business in Manokwari, West Papua.\r The results of the study that the purchase of raw materials made by the company is considered less efficient, because company policies tend to cause expenditure to be greater in the amount of Rp.606,620,250 for 12 months (1 period), while using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method will issue a fee of Rp.550,712,500 for the same period. Using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method, the order quantity is higher and the order frequency will be lower, resulting in order cost savings and increasing the total inventory cost efficiency.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Pratama","given":"Rizkyani","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Saptomo","given":"Yulius H","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sudarwadi","given":"Dirarini","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Cakrawala Management Business Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"340","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Dengan Metode Eoq Usaha Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi Kabupaten Manokwari","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dbfdf1cc-052e-400f-a846-bab0e8156bdb","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=aaf73bbb-280b-4fc5-9090-c5cee0ffeac7"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[22]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[22]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Pratama et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[22]. Sejumlah penelitian menunjukkan bahwa EOQ dapat menurunkan biaya penyimpanan dan pemesanan secara signifikan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Aji","given":"intan puspita","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Akbar","given":"Taufik","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Neraca Manajemen, ekonomi","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"5","issued":{"date-parts":[["2024"]]},"title":"ANALISIS PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU KAYU JATI PADA PT. XYZ DENGAN METODE ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY, SAFETY STOCK, DAN REORDER POINT","type":"article-journal","volume":"8"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=b30d9bac-4acf-4c64-88e4-9a90fdb4611c","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=caadc532-30b5-485f-977f-6eab0e34976a"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[23]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[23]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Aji & Akbar, 2024)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[23]. Menurut ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"… ketersediaan bahan baku agar prosesnya tetap berjalan dengan lancar. Bahan baku atau material merupakan faktor utama bagi perusahaan … persediaan dalam merencanakan jadwal induk produksi (MPS) dan perencanaan pengadaan material kembali, sehingga perusahaan …","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ros","given":"B J","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"SIJIE Scientific Journal of Industrial Engineering","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"67-69","title":"Usulan Perencanaan Material Pada Produk Botol Minyak Telon 60 ml dengan Metode Silver Meal di PT. Jaya Tama","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=68da3e34-fecc-40bc-8d6f-ef3d16894ec9","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=6de38df5-d2f7-491c-9c14-903b2b2d755f"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[24]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[24]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Ros, 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[24], penggunaan model matematis membantu perusahaan memahami pola kebutuhan material dan menentukan frekuensi pemesanan yang paling efisien. Temuan serupa disampaikan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30988/jmil.v4i2.510","ISSN":"2622-528X","abstract":"AbstractThis study aims to evaluate company policy in determining raw material ordering rates which are then compared with the EOQ, POQ, and Min-Max methods. This research uses a quantitive case study method using data obtained from the company. Forecasting is done using WinQSB and MAD, MSE and MAPE software for forecasting accuracy. Based on data processing, the data shows the horizontal pattern and the chosen forecasting method is the Simple Average method. Research shows the EOQ method has an order quantity of 1192 units / order with an order frequency of 11 times a year and has the smallest total inventory cost of the three methods compared which is Rp 269,520,852,781 or almost 50% lower than the total costs incurred by the company using the current method. ROP point has a value of 3395 units with a safety stock value of 106 units.AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kebijakan perusahaan dalam menentukan tingkat pemesanan bahan baku yang kemudian dibandingkan dengan metode EOQ, POQ dan Min-Max. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode studi kasus kuantitatif dengan menggunakan data yang diperoleh dari perusahaan. Peramalan dilakukan menggunakan perangkat lunak WinQSB dan MAD, MSE dan MAPE untuk akurasi peramalan. Berdasarkan pengolahan data, data menunjukkan pola horizontal dan metode peramalan yang dipilih adalah metode Simple Average. Penelitian ini menunjukkan metode EOQ memiliki jumlah pesanan 1192 unit / pesanan dengan frekuensi pemesanan 11 kali setahun dan memiliki total biaya persediaan terkecil dari ketiga metode yang dibandingkan yaitu Rp 269.520.852 atau hampir 50% lebih rendah dari total biaya yang dikeluarkan oleh perusahaan dengan metode saat ini. Titik ROP memiliki nilai 3395 unit dengan nilai stok pengaman 106 unit.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Arif","given":"zahra zayyina yustisia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sukarno","given":"Iwan","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Manajemen Industri dan Logistik","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"138-145","title":"Evaluasi kebijakan persediaan bahan baku kantong semen untuk mengurangi biaya persediaan (Studi kasus: PT Solusi Bangun Indonesia Tbk)","type":"article-journal","volume":"4"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=071f01a2-8d47-4ee1-b6b8-6c003bd0ea0d","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=2ef5e0b3-82fe-4a21-89f3-73bc3d848d7b"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[7]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[7]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Arif & Sukarno, 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[7] dan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"[Forecasting for Clinker Production Planning with Exponential Smoothing Method in PT Semen Indonesia] By increasing the production target of clinker in PT Semen Indonesia, production planning should be done properly. So this far, materials planning and production section of PT Semen Indonesia has not used any tools or methods in determining the production planning. It may cause a significant difference between production planning and actual release. The occurrence of this difference may cause effects that may result in losses for the company, such as the case of overstock or stock out. This study aims to get an appropriate method as the basis or reference in production planning and to forecast a result that could be used in production planning. The method used in the production forecast of clinker is Exponential Smoothing with Trend. After the forecast calculation the method continues with forecasting errors analysis using six methods of forecasting errors analysis that are Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Square Error, Mean Forecast Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Cumulative Forecast Error and Tracking Signal. The forecast calculation results the 2016 clinker production will be at number of 10.811.000 tons.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Mahardika","given":"Adri Dharmesta","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Susanto","given":"Novie","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Industrial Engineering Online Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2017"]]},"page":"1-10","title":"Peramalan Perencanaan Produksi Terak Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing With Trend Pada Pt. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=611719e5-c879-4c29-8975-d89ce4641a51","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=fe575839-5ccd-4c2f-a99e-7f0cc3dd242f"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[15]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[15]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Mahardika & Susanto, 2017)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[15], bahwa metode EOQ mendukung stabilitas pengadaan dan mengurangi ketergantungan pada pemesanan mendesak yang cenderung mahal.Penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.37373/tekno.v8i2.91","ISSN":"2087-3336","abstract":"Pada umumnya setiap perusahaan memiliki berbagai jenis persediaan baik itu perusahaan perdagangan, manufaktur dan jasa selalu menyediakan persediaan. UD Toko Plastik Hanif adalah sebuah perusahaan dagang (distributor) yang melakukan transaksi pembelian dan penjualan secara grosir untuk agen-agen kecil. Permasalahan lainnya yang terjadi dalam pengelolaan data barang masih menggunakan cara manual dengan mencatat ke dalam buku. Salah satu metode yang tepat dalam meminimalisir permasalahan pada menggunakan metode EOQ (Economic Order Quantity), tujuan dari metode ini untuk meminimalisir out of stock pada proses penjualan dan pembelian. Setelah dilakukannya penerapan EOQ ditemukan tingginya biaya persediaan yang dihasilkan, dan dari analisa persediaan dengan menggunakan metode EOQ berhasil melakukan penghematan dibandingkan sebelum menggunakan metode EOQ","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Amar","given":"andan saiful","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Mulyono","given":"Kristanto","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Nurjanah","given":"Susianti","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"TEKNOSAINS : Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Informatika","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"80-85","title":"Analisa Persediaan Stock Barang Dengan Menggunakan Metode Economic Oerder Quantity Di Ud Toko Plastik Hanif","type":"article-journal","volume":"8"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=974252be-0052-44f4-9458-c601c0a96dd1","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e1a976ec-c5e2-4ff8-8400-6813b2eec512"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[25]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[25]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Amar et al., 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[25] menunjukkan bahwa pengelolaan persediaan yang efektif sangat dipengaruhi oleh integrasi metode klasifikasi, peramalan permintaan, dan penentuan ukuran pemesanan yang optimal. ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.1145/3587889.3588208","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Seminario","given":"Carlos Valdivia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Perez","given":"Alberto Enrique Flores","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Becerra","given":"Fiorella Marin","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"id":"ITEM-1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023","6"]]},"page":"253-259","title":"Application of ABC Classification, EOQ, Fuzzy AHP, Time Series Models to improve order fulfillment in a trading company of household appliances","type":"article-journal"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=5fa5152d-0ab9-42af-9ea3-764731cf5324","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=35a683d8-6699-4f0e-9524-f8fc981e85eb"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[26]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[26]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Seminario et al., 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[26] membuktikan bahwa penggabungan Forecasting, analisis ABC, dan EOQ mampu meningkatkan akurasi pengendalian material serta memperbaiki perputaran persediaan pada perusahaan skala kecil. Temuan ini diperkuat oleh ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.1145/3587889.3588208","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Seminario","given":"Carlos Valdivia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Perez","given":"Alberto Enrique Flores","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Becerra","given":"Fiorella Marin","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"id":"ITEM-1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023","6"]]},"page":"253-259","title":"Application of ABC Classification, EOQ, Fuzzy AHP, Time Series Models to improve order fulfillment in a trading company of household appliances","type":"article-journal"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=35a683d8-6699-4f0e-9524-f8fc981e85eb","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=5fa5152d-0ab9-42af-9ea3-764731cf5324"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[26]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[26]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Seminario et al., 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[26] yang menambahkan pendekatan Fuzzy AHP untuk meningkatkan kualitas keputusan klasifikasi ABC dan hasil peramalan. Selain itu, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"https://doi.org/10.3390/sym11121527","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Erceg","given":"Živko","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Starčević","given":"Vitomir","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Pamučar","given":"Dragan","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"ORCID","given":"Goran Mitrović","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Stević","given":"Željko","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"ORCID","given":"","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Žikić","given":"Srđan","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"id":"ITEM-1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"title":"A New Model for Stock Management in Order to Rationalize Costs : ABC-FUCOM-Interval Rough CoCoSo Model","type":"article-journal"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=68ebc37d-3c71-4966-93a8-2b6884675d68","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=731fc87d-63bd-43c4-aa0f-3e3fdf34c199"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[27]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[27]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Erceg et al., 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[27] menunjukkan bahwa integrasi antara ABC dapat memberikan prioritas pengadaan yang lebih efektif dan berorientasi pada efisiensi biaya. Pada sisi lain, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.3390/systems12070260","ISSN":"20798954","abstract":"Efficient inventory management, including optimal safety-stock levels, is crucial for operational continuity and cost-effectiveness in various industries. This study seeks the optimal inventory management strategy to minimize costs and determine ideal safety-stock levels. It compares five approaches: the company’s (STAR) current “number of days” method, two alternative models from the literature (the theory of constraints (TOC) replenishment model and the service-level approach), and two newly developed hybrid methodologies (the TOC replenishment model with ABC–XYZ classification and the service-level approach with ABC–XYZ classification). The analysis focused on financial performance, considering inventory holding and shortage costs. Monthly production plans were established and fixed as constant based on predetermined optimum month-end inventory levels derived from each method. Through simulation, actual month-end inventory levels were assessed, comparing total inventory costs (TICs). While unit holding costs (UHCs) were documented in financial records in the company, unit shortage costs (USCs) were not; thus, USCs were examined in three scenarios. The results show that the second proposed hybrid model consistently outperformed the other four methods, including the company’s current approach, significantly reducing TIC. The analysis emphasizes the importance of demand variation in setting safety stocks and demonstrates the second hybrid methodology’s effectiveness in optimizing safety-stock strategies and improving overall inventory management efficiency.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Demiray Kırmızı","given":"Sema","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ceylan","given":"Zeynep","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Bulkan","given":"Serol","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Systems","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"7","issued":{"date-parts":[["2024"]]},"page":"1-17","title":"Enhancing Inventory Management through Safety-Stock Strategies—A Case Study","type":"article-journal","volume":"12"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=345bb426-6b97-45ba-9614-729c203a0a3c","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=5073f54c-35ae-4090-9567-3c6eaf3e8b09"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[28]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[28]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Demiray Kırmızı et al., 2024)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[28] menegaskan bahwa kombinasi antara analisis ABC–XYZ dan service-level mampu meningkatkan ketepatan penetapan safety stock sehingga risiko kekurangan bahan dapat diminimalkan.Dari perspektif teknologi, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.1145/3588243.3588245","ISBN":"9798400700651","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Quiroz-flores","given":"Juan Carlos","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Caceres-paitan","given":"Darien Cesar","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Quiroz-flores","given":"Juan Carlos","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"id":"ITEM-1","issue":"May","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"title":"Inventory control model based on Big Data , EOQ , ABC and forecast to increase productivity in a hardware SME Inventory control model based on Big Data , EOQ , ABC and forecast to increase productivity in a hardware SME","type":"article-journal"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=57be5474-7473-421e-9d38-76ee067fca1d","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=3a08fd1c-55bc-440b-8598-52338b1489f6"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[29]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[29]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Quiroz-flores et al., 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[29] mengintegrasikan Big Data analytics, ABC, Forecasting, dan EOQ untuk meningkatkan produktivitas dan ketersediaan stok pada sektor ritel teknis. Sementara itu, ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"https://doi.org/10.14445/22315381/IJETT-V73I9P125","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ochoa-gonzález","given":"Adolfo","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Mendoza-quintanilla","given":"Kevin","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Quiroz-flores","given":"Juan Carlos","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"id":"ITEM-1","issue":"9","issued":{"date-parts":[["2025"]]},"page":"288-308","title":"An Integrated Lean and Machine Learning Approach to Inventory Management in Automotive Accessories","type":"article-journal","volume":"73"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=56565edb-65fe-449e-86ce-8ff10cd5f40d","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=4f02112d-01a6-4eec-9b18-1e9bda588cd7"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[30]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[30]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Ochoa-gonzález et al., 2025)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[30] memperluas pendekatan ini melalui integrasi machine learning, lean logistics, ABC, dan EOQ, yang terbukti mampu meningkatkan efisiensi inventori pada industri aksesoris otomotif. Meskipun demikian, mayoritas penelitian tersebut masih menerapkan metode ABC, Forecasting, dan EOQ dalam konteks industri yang berbeda dan belum secara khusus menyoroti penerapannya pada sektor flexible packaging. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan penelitian yang lebih komprehensif untuk menghasilkan kebijakan pengendalian persediaan yang lebih akurat, relevan, dan sesuai dengan karakteristik material di industri tersebut.Meskipun berbagai penelitian telah membahas penerapan analisis ABC, metode Forecasting, maupun Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), sebagian besar penelitian tersebut masih menerapkan ketiga metode tersebut secara terpisah atau pada konteks industri yang berbeda dan belum ada penelitian yang fokus pada flexible packaging secara spesifik dengan integrasi 3 metode. Padahal dalam praktik industri, ketiga pendekatan tersebut saling berkaitan dan seharusnya digunakan secara terintegrasi untuk menghasilkan kebijakan pengendalian persediaan yang lebih optimal. Oleh karena itu, rumusan masalah dalam penelitian ini adalah: (1) bagaimana menentukan prioritas packing material yang perlu diawasi secara ketat, (2) bagaimana memprediksi kebutuhan material secara lebih akurat berdasarkan data historis, dan (3) bagaimana menentukan jumlah pemesanan material yang paling ekonomis untuk meminimalkan biaya persediaan. Berdasarkan rumusan masalah tersebut, tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk: (1) mengidentifikasi prioritas material menggunakan analisis ABC, (2) menentukan metode peramalan yang paling akurat dalam memprediksi kebutuhan material, serta (3) menghitung jumlah pemesanan optimal menggunakan metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ). Kontribusi atau kebaruan (novelty) penelitian ini terletak pada integrasi ketiga metode tersebut dalam satu kerangka analisis pengendalian persediaan pada industri flexible packaging, sehingga diharapkan mampu menghasilkan perencanaan material yang lebih akurat, efisien, dan aplikatif.MetodeMetode penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif karena seluruh analisis didasarkan pada data numerik terkait penggunaan material, nilai investasi, serta perhitungan kebutuhan dan jumlah pemesanan optimal untuk menggambarkan kondisi nyata manajemen persediaan packing material pada perusahaan flexible packaging, sekaligus menguji penerapan metode ABC Analysis, forecasting (SA, MA, WMA, SES) ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30737/jatiunik.v7i2.5495","ISSN":"2597-6257","abstract":"JNE Kopma UNY's logistics demand increases 2% per week, the manual courier allocation system is unable to keep up, predictions are accurate and real-time is needed. However, there is no exact accuracy for this case. The study was conducted to determine the accuracy of the smallest Mean Percentage Error (MPE) at JNE Kopma UNY by observing sales data for 2022 to predict demand. The data was analyzed using the Naive Approach, SMA and WMA methods, then measured using the MPE to determine the best forecasting method. The software used is Microsoft Excel 2016. The 3 Month (SMA) produces the highest sales prediction (Rp. 38,668,850) for January 2023 compared to Naive Approach (Rp. 35,086,330) and 3 Month WMA (Rp. 37,993,380). 3 Month SMA is proven to be superior with the lowest MPE (12.07%) and consistent performance. Naive Approach is inaccurate (MPE 20.26%) and 3 Month WMA performance is unstable (MPE 14.27%). This research recommends 3 Month SMA for JNE Kopma UNY to increase the accuracy of sales predictions and optimize stock. Opportunities for further research are open regarding the application of 3 Month SMA in various contexts.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wulan","given":"Nanda cahya","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Riani","given":"lilia pasca","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"JATI UNIK : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik dan Manajemen Industri","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2024"]]},"page":"149-160","title":"Perbandingan Pendekatan Metode Peramalan Naive Approach, Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Prediksi Penjualan JNE Kopma UNY","type":"article-journal","volume":"7"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=5e3628e0-2b6a-4368-980f-81ee519d4e87"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[20]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[20]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wulan & Riani, 2024)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[20] dan Economic Order Quantity (EOQ).Pemilihan parameter dan variabel dalam penelitian ini didasarkan pada karakteristik utama dalam pengendalian persediaan, yaitu nilai investasi material, tingkat konsumsi, pola permintaan, serta komponen biaya persediaan yang terdiri dari biaya pemesanan dan biaya penyimpanan. Variabel nilai investasi dan tingkat konsumsi digunakan dalam analisis ABC untuk mengidentifikasi prioritas pengendalian material berdasarkan prinsip Pareto, di mana sebagian kecil item memberikan kontribusi terbesar terhadap total nilai persediaan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.7454/jvi.v3i2.1073","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wahyuni","given":"Titis","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"title":"Penggunaan Analisis ABC Untuk Pengendalian Persediaan Barang Habis Pakai","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1cf16f8f-f4ed-4108-a88a-e97860abbb7e"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[3]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[3]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wahyuni, 2015)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[3], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"In the supply of medicines in the pharmacy warehouse of Muhammadiyah Gresik Hospital, there has been drug void and expired date. This research was conducted by using descriptive qualitative research approach. Based on the analysis of ABC, the use of drugs in group A was 43 drugs or 7.75% of all drug supplies with 90323 items or 69.59% of total drug usage. Medicines belonging to group B are 78 types of drugs or 14.05% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 26371 items or 20.32% of total drug usage. While the drugs that include group C as much as 434 types of drugs or 78.25% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 13103 items or 10.09% of total drug usage. Based on analysis of ABC Investment classified as A is as much as 78 types of drugs or 14.5% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 250,733,719.00 or 69.28% of the total drug investment. The drugs belonging to group B are as many as 135 types of drugs or 24.32% of all drugs with an investment value of Rp 82,624,061.00 or 22.83% of the total drug investment. While the drugs belonging to group C are as many as 342 types of drugs or 61.63% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 28,513,928.00 or 7.89% of the total drug investment. Based on EOQ analysis then the optimum order amount from Group A with high investment value varies from 1-2565 items. While according to ROP analysis obtained point reorder/time reorder for 78 drugs that belong to group A with high investment value varies from 1-2861 item.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Nisa","given":"anna fitrotun","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Manajerial","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"17-24","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Obat berdasarkan Metode ABC, EOQ dan ROP (Studi Kasus Pada Gudang Farmasi Rumah Sakit Muhammadiyah Gresik)","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dc444c12-f154-42fc-8272-4354b6872a51"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[4]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[4]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Nisa, 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[4].Variabel permintaan historis digunakan dalam proses peramalan karena mencerminkan pola kebutuhan material aktual yang menjadi dasar dalam menentukan estimasi kebutuhan di masa mendatang. Pemilihan metode Weighted Moving Average, Moving Average, Simple Average, dan Single Exponential Smoothing didasarkan pada kemampuannya dalam menangkap pola data yang relatif fluktuatif serta memberikan tingkat akurasi yang dapat diukur menggunakan indikator kesalahan seperti Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), dan Tracking Signal ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31294/evolusi.v11i2.17267","ISSN":"2338-8161","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hayuningtyas","given":"Ratih Yulia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"EVOLUSI : Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"34-41","title":"Metode Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average Dalam Memprediksi Produksi Beras","type":"article-journal","volume":"11"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=48c1d398-299c-4024-9f71-6703cac3ab48"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[9]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[9]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Darwati & Hayuningtyas, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.36456/tibuana.6.1.6442.32-37","ISSN":"2622-2027","abstract":"Boy Delivery is a delivery service in the city of Lamongan which has been operating for about 4 years. Boy Delivery has an average of 12,000 demand per month. However, the high demand was not accompanied by good demand management, Boy Delivery often piled up and even rejected a number of demand due to the unavailability of drivers at that time, this was due to an incorrect prediction of demand. Therefore this research was conducted to help forecast future demand using the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing methods. Of the three methods, the Single Exponential Smoothing method was obtained as the best method with the most accurate results with a smaller error of 5.481%.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hidayatullah","given":"Muhammad Asyrof","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Rahmawati","given":"Nur","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Tibuana","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"32-37","title":"Application of the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Methods For Forecasting Demand At Boy Delivery","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dfd1717e-d764-423a-bfbe-072d50cc7140"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[17]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[17]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Hidayatullah & Rahmawati, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[17]. Sementara itu, variabel biaya pemesanan (ordering cost) dan biaya penyimpanan (holding cost) digunakan dalam perhitungan Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) karena kedua komponen tersebut merupakan faktor utama dalam menentukan jumlah pemesanan optimal yang mampu meminimalkan total biaya persediaan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30862/cm-bj.v2i2.47","ISSN":"2622-9951","abstract":"Controlling and determining of inventory is an important thing in order to produce efficiently and able to make smooth sales. The purpose of this research is to know an analysis of controlling raw material inventoriesin the manufacture of brick by using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method to increase efficiency of the total inventory costin Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi. The raw material of brick is rough sand and cements.\r Type of case study research through a qualitative approach by means of interviews, observation and documentation. Case study on a wood booth business in Manokwari, West Papua.\r The results of the study that the purchase of raw materials made by the company is considered less efficient, because company policies tend to cause expenditure to be greater in the amount of Rp.606,620,250 for 12 months (1 period), while using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method will issue a fee of Rp.550,712,500 for the same period. Using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method, the order quantity is higher and the order frequency will be lower, resulting in order cost savings and increasing the total inventory cost efficiency.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Pratama","given":"Rizkyani","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Saptomo","given":"Yulius H","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sudarwadi","given":"Dirarini","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Cakrawala Management Business Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"340","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Dengan Metode Eoq Usaha Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi Kabupaten Manokwari","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=aaf73bbb-280b-4fc5-9090-c5cee0ffeac7"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[22]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[22]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Pratama et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[22], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Aji","given":"intan puspita","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Akbar","given":"Taufik","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Neraca Manajemen, ekonomi","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"5","issued":{"date-parts":[["2024"]]},"title":"ANALISIS PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU KAYU JATI PADA PT. XYZ DENGAN METODE ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY, SAFETY STOCK, DAN REORDER POINT","type":"article-journal","volume":"8"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=caadc532-30b5-485f-977f-6eab0e34976a"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[23]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[23]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Aji & Akbar, 2024)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[23].Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini mengacu pada standar dan referensi ilmiah dalam bidang manajemen operasi dan pengendalian persediaan. Analisis ABC mengacu pada konsep klasifikasi berdasarkan nilai konsumsi tahunan yang mengikuti prinsip Pareto ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.7454/jvi.v3i2.1073","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wahyuni","given":"Titis","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"title":"Penggunaan Analisis ABC Untuk Pengendalian Persediaan Barang Habis Pakai","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1cf16f8f-f4ed-4108-a88a-e97860abbb7e"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[3]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[3]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wahyuni, 2015)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[3]. Metode peramalan mengacu pada pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis time series seperti Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, dan Single Exponential Smoothing yang umum digunakan dalam memprediksi permintaan material ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31294/evolusi.v11i2.17267","ISSN":"2338-8161","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hayuningtyas","given":"Ratih Yulia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"EVOLUSI : Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"34-41","title":"Metode Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average Dalam Memprediksi Produksi Beras","type":"article-journal","volume":"11"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=48c1d398-299c-4024-9f71-6703cac3ab48"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[9]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[9]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Darwati & Hayuningtyas, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30591/smartcomp.v10i3.2887","ISSN":"2089676X","abstract":"The technology of buying and selling goods in managing goods in and out will provide convenience for the management in managing stock data, financial control and profit calculation that will be immediately known by stakeholders. Forecasting method is a method that is able to analyze several factors that are known to influence the occurrence of an event with a long grace period between the need for knowledge of an event to occur in the future and the time the event has occurred in the past. In a retail company, if this forecasting method is applied in the planning of goods management, the company will be assisted in the process of planning the sale of goods which is currently still being done by predicting the amount of sales of goods that will come without any calculation, causing excessive purchases of goods that can affect the stock of goods. Single exponential smoothing method is a development of the single moving averages method where the forecasting method is done by repeating calculations continuously using the latest data and each data is weighted. The single exponential smoothing method considers the weight of the previous data by giving weight to each data period to distinguish the priority of data. The single exponential smoothing method is a method used in short-term forecasting that is usually only 1 month ahead which assumes that the data fluctuates around a fixed mean value without consistent trends or growth patterns. The accuracy of the application of the single exponential method in forecasting sales of goods in this study with an alpha value of 0.1 on the MAPE calculation average is 2%.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ginantra","given":"Ni Luh Wiwik Sri Rahayu","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Anandita","given":"Ida Bagus Gede","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Smart Comp: Jurnalnya Orang Pintar Komputer","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"3","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"154-159","title":"Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Penjualan Benang","type":"article-journal","volume":"10"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e0680d6f-9373-4c54-a1a0-7595653058a5"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[14]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[14]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Ginantra & Anandita, 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[14]. Sementara itu, perhitungan EOQ mengacu pada model matematis klasik yang digunakan untuk menentukan jumlah pemesanan optimal dengan mempertimbangkan keseimbangan antara biaya pemesanan dan biaya penyimpanan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30862/cm-bj.v2i2.47","ISSN":"2622-9951","abstract":"Controlling and determining of inventory is an important thing in order to produce efficiently and able to make smooth sales. The purpose of this research is to know an analysis of controlling raw material inventoriesin the manufacture of brick by using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method to increase efficiency of the total inventory costin Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi. The raw material of brick is rough sand and cements.\r Type of case study research through a qualitative approach by means of interviews, observation and documentation. Case study on a wood booth business in Manokwari, West Papua.\r The results of the study that the purchase of raw materials made by the company is considered less efficient, because company policies tend to cause expenditure to be greater in the amount of Rp.606,620,250 for 12 months (1 period), while using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method will issue a fee of Rp.550,712,500 for the same period. Using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method, the order quantity is higher and the order frequency will be lower, resulting in order cost savings and increasing the total inventory cost efficiency.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Pratama","given":"Rizkyani","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Saptomo","given":"Yulius H","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sudarwadi","given":"Dirarini","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Cakrawala Management Business Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"340","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Dengan Metode Eoq Usaha Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi Kabupaten Manokwari","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=aaf73bbb-280b-4fc5-9090-c5cee0ffeac7"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[22]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[22]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Pratama et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[22].Penelitian dilakukan secara sistematis mulai dari pengumpulan data historis, pengolahan data, perhitungan dengan berbagai metode kuantitatif, hingga interpretasi hasil untuk menghasilkan rekomendasi perbaikan manajemen persediaan. Populasi penelitian mencakup seluruh item packing material yang digunakan dalam proses produksi, meliputi kategori PLY, FIT, dan CB. Sampel ditentukan menggunakan teknik purposive sampling, yaitu seluruh material untuk analisis ABC, material kategori A hasil klasifikasi ABC untuk analisis forecasting, serta material kategori A yang sama sebagai objek perhitungan EOQ, dengan pertimbangan kontribusi nilai investasi yang tinggi dan tingkat urgensinya terhadap kelancaran produksi.Instrumen penelitian meliputi dokumentasi, observasi, wawancara, dan perangkat lunak WinQSB. Dokumentasi mencakup data historis pemakaian material, daftar harga, catatan pemesanan, dan biaya penyimpanan. Observasi dan wawancara dengan staf PPIC dilakukan untuk memastikan keakuratan data serta memahami proses pengelolaan persediaan. Perangkat lunak WinQSB digunakan untuk melakukan perhitungan forecasting dan evaluasi akurasi, sehingga analisis ABC, forecasting, dan EOQ dapat dilakukan secara sistematis dan terukur.Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui observasi, dokumentasi, wawancara, dan studi pustaka untuk memperoleh data yang valid dan relevan. Observasi dilakukan langsung pada divisi PPIC untuk memahami alur pemakaian material dan pengelolaan stok. Dokumentasi meliputi laporan konsumsi, data pembelian, serta informasi biaya persediaan. Wawancara dilakukan untuk memverifikasi asumsi biaya yang digunakan dalam perhitungan EOQ, sedangkan studi pustaka digunakan untuk memperkuat dasar teoritis metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian.Prosedur analisis data dilakukan secara bertahap. Tahap pertama adalah analisis ABC untuk mengelompokkan material berdasarkan nilai investasi dan menentukan prioritas pengendalian. Tahap kedua adalah melakukan peramalan terhadap material kategori A menggunakan metode Simple Average, Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, dan Single Exponential Smoothing. Setiap metode dihitung menggunakan WinQSB dan diverifikasi secara manual menggunakan Microsoft Excel untuk memastikan konsistensi hasil. Selanjutnya dilakukan evaluasi akurasi menggunakan indikator MAPE, MAD, Mean Squared Error (MSE), dan Tracking Signal untuk menentukan metode terbaik.Tahap ketiga adalah perhitungan Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) menggunakan hasil peramalan sebagai dasar estimasi permintaan serta mempertimbangkan biaya pemesanan dan biaya penyimpanan. Tahap terakhir adalah interpretasi hasil analisis untuk menghasilkan rekomendasi pengendalian persediaan yang optimal.Penelitian ini dibatasi pada material kategori A berdasarkan nilai investasi tertinggi dengan periode data Januari hingga Agustus 2024. Asumsi biaya diperoleh dari wawancara staf PPIC, sehingga hasil penelitian difokuskan pada kondisi aktual operasional perusahaan.Validitas data dalam penelitian ini dijaga melalui penggunaan data historis aktual perusahaan yang diverifikasi melalui observasi dan wawancara dengan staf terkait. Selain itu, hasil perhitungan dibandingkan antara perangkat lunak WinQSB dan perhitungan manual menggunakan Microsoft Excel untuk memastikan akurasi. Reliabilitas metode dijamin melalui penggunaan metode kuantitatif yang telah teruji dalam berbagai penelitian sebelumnya, serta penggunaan beberapa metode forecasting dan indikator evaluasi untuk memastikan konsistensi dan keandalan hasil analisis ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30862/cm-bj.v2i2.47","ISSN":"2622-9951","abstract":"Controlling and determining of inventory is an important thing in order to produce efficiently and able to make smooth sales. The purpose of this research is to know an analysis of controlling raw material inventoriesin the manufacture of brick by using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method to increase efficiency of the total inventory costin Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi. The raw material of brick is rough sand and cements.\r Type of case study research through a qualitative approach by means of interviews, observation and documentation. Case study on a wood booth business in Manokwari, West Papua.\r The results of the study that the purchase of raw materials made by the company is considered less efficient, because company policies tend to cause expenditure to be greater in the amount of Rp.606,620,250 for 12 months (1 period), while using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method will issue a fee of Rp.550,712,500 for the same period. Using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method, the order quantity is higher and the order frequency will be lower, resulting in order cost savings and increasing the total inventory cost efficiency.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Pratama","given":"Rizkyani","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Saptomo","given":"Yulius H","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sudarwadi","given":"Dirarini","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Cakrawala Management Business Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"340","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Dengan Metode Eoq Usaha Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi Kabupaten Manokwari","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=aaf73bbb-280b-4fc5-9090-c5cee0ffeac7"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[22]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[22]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Pratama et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[22], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31294/evolusi.v11i2.17267","ISSN":"2338-8161","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hayuningtyas","given":"Ratih Yulia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"EVOLUSI : Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"34-41","title":"Metode Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average Dalam Memprediksi Produksi Beras","type":"article-journal","volume":"11"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=48c1d398-299c-4024-9f71-6703cac3ab48"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[9]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[9]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Darwati & Hayuningtyas, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9].Hasil dan PembahasanAnalisis ABC Hal ini digunakan untuk mengelompokkan material berdasarkan tingkat prioritas pengendalian persediaan dengan mempertimbangkan nilai investasinya ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"In the supply of medicines in the pharmacy warehouse of Muhammadiyah Gresik Hospital, there has been drug void and expired date. This research was conducted by using descriptive qualitative research approach. Based on the analysis of ABC, the use of drugs in group A was 43 drugs or 7.75% of all drug supplies with 90323 items or 69.59% of total drug usage. Medicines belonging to group B are 78 types of drugs or 14.05% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 26371 items or 20.32% of total drug usage. While the drugs that include group C as much as 434 types of drugs or 78.25% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 13103 items or 10.09% of total drug usage. Based on analysis of ABC Investment classified as A is as much as 78 types of drugs or 14.5% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 250,733,719.00 or 69.28% of the total drug investment. The drugs belonging to group B are as many as 135 types of drugs or 24.32% of all drugs with an investment value of Rp 82,624,061.00 or 22.83% of the total drug investment. While the drugs belonging to group C are as many as 342 types of drugs or 61.63% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 28,513,928.00 or 7.89% of the total drug investment. Based on EOQ analysis then the optimum order amount from Group A with high investment value varies from 1-2565 items. While according to ROP analysis obtained point reorder/time reorder for 78 drugs that belong to group A with high investment value varies from 1-2861 item.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Nisa","given":"anna fitrotun","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Manajerial","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"17-24","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Obat berdasarkan Metode ABC, EOQ dan ROP (Studi Kasus Pada Gudang Farmasi Rumah Sakit Muhammadiyah Gresik)","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dc444c12-f154-42fc-8272-4354b6872a51","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e7a16e41-913c-4219-8e95-f98cd74b6b33"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[4]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[4]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Nisa, 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[4], ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.7454/jvi.v3i2.1073","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wahyuni","given":"Titis","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"title":"Penggunaan Analisis ABC Untuk Pengendalian Persediaan Barang Habis Pakai","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1cf16f8f-f4ed-4108-a88a-e97860abbb7e","http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=d12213e8-d5dc-4952-96ee-fad50e2a87db"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[3]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[3]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wahyuni, 2015)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[3]. Pada penelitian ini, tiga jenis packing material yaitu FIT, PLY, dan CB dianalisis menggunakan data jumlah item dan nilai investasi tahunan (Tabel 1).Tabel 1. Jumlah Item dan Nilai Investasi TahunanPacking MaterialItem PMItem PM (%)Nilai Investasi (Rp)Nilai Investasi (%)KeteranganFIT76765.432.560PLY1932.986.575.430CB225876.543.675TOTAL4941004.628.551.665100Persentasi Jenis PM= 76494x 100 = 15,38%Persentase Nilai Investasi= 765.432.5604.628.551.665x 100=16,54%Tabel 2. Analisis ABCPacking MaterialItem PMItem PM (%)Nilai Investasi (Rp)Nilai Investasi (%)KeteranganPLY19339.07%765.432.56064.53%ACB22545.55%2.986.575.43018.94%BFIT7615.38%876.543.67516.54%CTOTAL4941004.628.551.665100Hasil analisis ABC pada (Tabel 2), menunjukkan bahwa material PLY termasuk kategori A dengan kontribusi nilai investasi sebesar 64,53% meskipun hanya mewakili 39,07% jumlah item. Hal ini menunjukkan adanya ketidakseimbangan distribusi nilai investasi yang mengikuti prinsip Pareto, di mana sebagian kecil item memberikan kontribusi mayoritas terhadap total nilai persediaan.Kondisi ini terjadi karena material PLY memiliki harga satuan yang relatif tinggi serta tingkat konsumsi yang besar dalam proses produksi, sehingga memberikan kontribusi dominan terhadap total nilai investasi dibandingkan material lainnya. Dengan kata lain, meskipun jumlah item tidak paling banyak, nilai ekonominya jauh lebih signifikan.Temuan ini sejalan dengan penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.7454/jvi.v3i2.1073","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Wahyuni","given":"Titis","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"title":"Penggunaan Analisis ABC Untuk Pengendalian Persediaan Barang Habis Pakai","type":"article-journal","volume":"3"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=1cf16f8f-f4ed-4108-a88a-e97860abbb7e"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[3]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[3]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Wahyuni, 2015)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[3] dan ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"abstract":"In the supply of medicines in the pharmacy warehouse of Muhammadiyah Gresik Hospital, there has been drug void and expired date. This research was conducted by using descriptive qualitative research approach. Based on the analysis of ABC, the use of drugs in group A was 43 drugs or 7.75% of all drug supplies with 90323 items or 69.59% of total drug usage. Medicines belonging to group B are 78 types of drugs or 14.05% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 26371 items or 20.32% of total drug usage. While the drugs that include group C as much as 434 types of drugs or 78.25% of all types of drug supplies with the amount of use as much as 13103 items or 10.09% of total drug usage. Based on analysis of ABC Investment classified as A is as much as 78 types of drugs or 14.5% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 250,733,719.00 or 69.28% of the total drug investment. The drugs belonging to group B are as many as 135 types of drugs or 24.32% of all drugs with an investment value of Rp 82,624,061.00 or 22.83% of the total drug investment. While the drugs belonging to group C are as many as 342 types of drugs or 61.63% of all drugs with an investment of Rp 28,513,928.00 or 7.89% of the total drug investment. Based on EOQ analysis then the optimum order amount from Group A with high investment value varies from 1-2565 items. While according to ROP analysis obtained point reorder/time reorder for 78 drugs that belong to group A with high investment value varies from 1-2861 item.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Nisa","given":"anna fitrotun","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Manajerial","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]},"page":"17-24","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Obat berdasarkan Metode ABC, EOQ dan ROP (Studi Kasus Pada Gudang Farmasi Rumah Sakit Muhammadiyah Gresik)","type":"article-journal","volume":"6"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=dc444c12-f154-42fc-8272-4354b6872a51"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[4]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[4]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Nisa, 2019)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[4] yang menyatakan bahwa material dengan nilai konsumsi tinggi cenderung masuk kategori A dan memerlukan pengendalian yang lebih ketat. Namun demikian, dalam konteks industri flexible packaging, dominasi material PLY menunjukkan bahwa risiko finansial persediaan lebih terpusat pada jenis material tertentu dibandingkan distribusi yang lebih merata.Secara implikatif, perusahaan perlu memfokuskan strategi pengendalian persediaan pada material kategori A, khususnya PLY, melalui pengawasan yang lebih intensif, pengendalian stok yang lebih ketat, serta perencanaan pengadaan yang lebih akurat guna meminimalkan risiko biaya persediaan yang tinggi.Analisis ForecastForecasting metode Simple AveragePeramalan menggunakan metode Simple Average dilakukan berdasarkan data historis pemakaian material selama delapan bulan. Metode ini menggunakan rata-rata sederhana sehingga cocok untuk data dengan pola relatif stabil.Tabel 3. Perhitungan Forecast SAKeteranganNilai (Excel)Nilai (Software)Nilai forecast di bulan berikutnya10.465,510.465,5Mean Squared Error (MSE)4.548.103,8734.548.103,873Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)1.834,0951.834,095Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)18,002%18,002%Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)929,333929,333Tracking Signal0,5070,507Dari (Tabel 3) diatas, hasil menunjukkan bahwa nilai prediksi sebesar 10.465 unit dengan nilai MAPE 18,002% yang termasuk kategori akurasi sedang. Hal ini terjadi karena metode Simple Average tidak mempertimbangkan perubahan pola permintaan terbaru, sehingga kurang responsif terhadap fluktuasi data.Temuan ini sejalan dengan penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31294/evolusi.v11i2.17267","ISSN":"2338-8161","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hayuningtyas","given":"Ratih Yulia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"EVOLUSI : Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"34-41","title":"Metode Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average Dalam Memprediksi Produksi Beras","type":"article-journal","volume":"11"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=48c1d398-299c-4024-9f71-6703cac3ab48"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[9]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[9]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Darwati & Hayuningtyas, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9] yang menyatakan bahwa metode rata-rata sederhana cenderung menghasilkan akurasi lebih rendah pada data yang bersifat dinamis.Secara implikatif, metode ini kurang optimal digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan dalam kondisi permintaan yang fluktuatif karena berpotensi menghasilkan prediksi yang kurang akurat.Forecasting Metode Moving AverageTabel 4. Perhitungan Forecast MAKeteranganNilai (Excel)Nilai (Software)Nilai forecast di bulan berikutnya9.581,339.581,33Mean Squared Error (MSE)3.459.857,83.459.857,8Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)1.554,131.554,13Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)16,944%16,944%Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)-4.730,67-4.730,67Tracking Signal-3,04-3,04Hasil pada (Tabel 4), menunjukkan bahwa nilai prediksi sebesar 9.581,33 unit dengan MAPE sebesar 16,944%. Meskipun lebih baik dibanding Simple Average, metode ini masih menunjukkan tingkat kesalahan yang cukup signifikan. Hal ini terjadi karena metode Moving Average hanya meratakan data tanpa mempertimbangkan bobot kepentingan masing-masing periode.Nilai tracking signal yang mendekati batas kontrol menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan bias dalam prediksi, di mana hasil peramalan cenderung lebih rendah dari nilai aktual. Temuan ini sejalan dengan penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.51401/jinteks.v2i1.554","abstract":"Forecasting in the company is forecasting product sales to consumers. By knowing product sales can assist the company to provide materials to be produced and determine the production process itself. PT. Sunthi Sepuri is a pharmaceutical company. PT. Sunthi Sepuri often experiences marketing forecasting errors. This causes uncertainty in the amount of production so that it can cause employee productivity to decrease due to the increasing amount of production at any time. In this study demand forecasting will be held at PT. Sunthi Sepuri. This research apply the Single Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing methods, with the sample to be used is Aknil product, this product is a pain-relieving drug. Use the two methods to compare the most accurate forecasting methods and close to the actual value. The research methods start from gathering historical data, determining forecasting methods, forecasting calculations, determining the best method, and withdrawing conclusions. Based on the test results that the method that can be used to analyze data that has a small error rate is the Single Moving Average method. Forecasting results for July 2019 with the Single Exponential Smoothing method using ?: 0.8 are 408,488 caplets. As for July 2019, the Single Moving Average method is 466","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hudaningsih","given":"Nurul","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Firda Utami","given":"Silvia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Abdul Jabbar","given":"Wari Ammar","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Jurnal Informatika, Teknologi dan Sains","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"1","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"15-22","title":"Perbandingan Peramalan Penjualan Produk Aknil Pt.Sunthi Sepurimengguanakan Metode Single Moving Average Dan Single Exponential Smooting","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=7c3236f0-b296-477c-9def-87766104f371"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[31]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[31]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Hudaningsih et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[31] yang menyatakan bahwa metode ini efektif untuk data stabil, namun kurang optimal pada data dengan variasi tinggi. Implikasinya, metode ini masih memiliki keterbatasan dalam menangkap dinamika permintaan sehingga perlu dipertimbangkan metode lain yang lebih adaptif.Forecasting Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving AverageTabel 5. Perhitungan Forecast WMAKeteranganNilai (Excel)Nilai (WINQSB)Nilai forecast di bulan berikutnya (Bulan 9)9.249,29.249,2Mean Squared Error (MSE)3.274.6193.274.619Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)1.4441.444Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 15,81%15,81%Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)-4.400-4.400Tracking Signal-3,047-3,047Hasil pada (Tabel 5), menunjukkan bahwa metode Weighted Moving Average menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 15,81%, yang merupakan tingkat kesalahan terendah dibandingkan metode lainnya. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa metode ini memiliki tingkat akurasi terbaik dalam memprediksi kebutuhan material.Kondisi ini terjadi karena metode WMA memberikan bobot lebih besar pada data terbaru, sehingga lebih mampu menangkap perubahan pola permintaan yang bersifat fluktuatif.Temuan ini sejalan dengan penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.31294/evolusi.v11i2.17267","ISSN":"2338-8161","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Darwati","given":"Ida","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Hayuningtyas","given":"Ratih Yulia","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"EVOLUSI : Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2023"]]},"page":"34-41","title":"Metode Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average Dalam Memprediksi Produksi Beras","type":"article-journal","volume":"11"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=48c1d398-299c-4024-9f71-6703cac3ab48"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[9]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[9]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Darwati & Hayuningtyas, 2023)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9] yang menyatakan bahwa WMA lebih efektif dalam kondisi data yang tidak stabil. Namun demikian, nilai tracking signal menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan bias negatif, sehingga model masih memiliki kelemahan dalam menghasilkan prediksi yang sepenuhnya akurat.Secara implikatif, metode WMA dapat digunakan sebagai dasar perencanaan kebutuhan material karena memiliki tingkat akurasi terbaik, namun tetap perlu dikombinasikan dengan evaluasi berkala untuk menghindari kesalahan prediksi yang berulang.Forecasting Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Tabel 6. Perhitungan Forecast SESKeteranganNilai (Excel)Nilai (WINQSB)Nilai forecast di bulan berikutnya (Bulan 9)8.947,778.947,77Mean Squared Error (MSE)4.652.1604.652.160Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)1.606,2181.606,218Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)15,987%15,987%Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)384,71384,71Tracking Signal0,23950,2395Hasil pada (Tabel 6), menunjukkan bahwa metode SES menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 15,987% dengan tingkat kesalahan yang masih dalam batas wajar. Hal ini terjadi karena penggunaan nilai alpha yang tinggi membuat model lebih responsif terhadap perubahan data terbaru.Temuan ini sejalan dengan penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30591/smartcomp.v10i3.2887","ISSN":"2089676X","abstract":"The technology of buying and selling goods in managing goods in and out will provide convenience for the management in managing stock data, financial control and profit calculation that will be immediately known by stakeholders. Forecasting method is a method that is able to analyze several factors that are known to influence the occurrence of an event with a long grace period between the need for knowledge of an event to occur in the future and the time the event has occurred in the past. In a retail company, if this forecasting method is applied in the planning of goods management, the company will be assisted in the process of planning the sale of goods which is currently still being done by predicting the amount of sales of goods that will come without any calculation, causing excessive purchases of goods that can affect the stock of goods. Single exponential smoothing method is a development of the single moving averages method where the forecasting method is done by repeating calculations continuously using the latest data and each data is weighted. The single exponential smoothing method considers the weight of the previous data by giving weight to each data period to distinguish the priority of data. The single exponential smoothing method is a method used in short-term forecasting that is usually only 1 month ahead which assumes that the data fluctuates around a fixed mean value without consistent trends or growth patterns. The accuracy of the application of the single exponential method in forecasting sales of goods in this study with an alpha value of 0.1 on the MAPE calculation average is 2%.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Ginantra","given":"Ni Luh Wiwik Sri Rahayu","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Anandita","given":"Ida Bagus Gede","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Smart Comp: Jurnalnya Orang Pintar Komputer","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"3","issued":{"date-parts":[["2021"]]},"page":"154-159","title":"Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Penjualan Benang","type":"article-journal","volume":"10"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e0680d6f-9373-4c54-a1a0-7595653058a5"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[14]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[14]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Ginantra & Anandita, 2021)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[14] yang menyatakan bahwa metode SES efektif digunakan untuk data dengan pola fluktuatif. Namun demikian, nilai error yang masih relatif tinggi dibanding WMA menunjukkan bahwa metode ini belum menjadi pilihan optimal.Implikasinya, metode SES dapat digunakan sebagai alternatif, namun bukan sebagai metode utama dalam peramalan kebutuhan material pada kondisi data yang kompleks.Perhitungan EOQTabel 7. Perhitungan EOQMaterialSatuanD S H EOQPlywood Multi 0280x0280x09 dia 77pc12.5592 10,000,000 10,000 15,849 Plywood Multi 0310x0310x09 dia 77pc88.092 10,000,000 10,000 13,273 Plywood Multi 0365x0365x09 dia 77pc24.444 10,000,000 10,000 6,992 Plywood Multi 0365x0385x12 dia 77pc17.256 10,000,000 10,000 5,875 Hasil perhitungan Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) pada (Tabel 7), menunjukkan bahwa jumlah pemesanan optimal yang diperoleh berbeda dengan pola pemesanan aktual perusahaan. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa selama ini perusahaan belum menerapkan kebijakan pemesanan yang optimal sehingga berpotensi meningkatkan total biaya persediaan.Kondisi ini terjadi karena model EOQ mempertimbangkan keseimbangan antara biaya pemesanan (ordering cost) dan biaya penyimpanan (holding cost), sehingga mampu menghasilkan titik biaya total minimum.Temuan ini sejalan dengan penelitian ADDIN CSL_CITATION {"citationItems":[{"id":"ITEM-1","itemData":{"DOI":"10.30862/cm-bj.v2i2.47","ISSN":"2622-9951","abstract":"Controlling and determining of inventory is an important thing in order to produce efficiently and able to make smooth sales. The purpose of this research is to know an analysis of controlling raw material inventoriesin the manufacture of brick by using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method to increase efficiency of the total inventory costin Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi. The raw material of brick is rough sand and cements.\r Type of case study research through a qualitative approach by means of interviews, observation and documentation. Case study on a wood booth business in Manokwari, West Papua.\r The results of the study that the purchase of raw materials made by the company is considered less efficient, because company policies tend to cause expenditure to be greater in the amount of Rp.606,620,250 for 12 months (1 period), while using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method will issue a fee of Rp.550,712,500 for the same period. Using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method, the order quantity is higher and the order frequency will be lower, resulting in order cost savings and increasing the total inventory cost efficiency.","author":[{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Pratama","given":"Rizkyani","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Saptomo","given":"Yulius H","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""},{"dropping-particle":"","family":"Sudarwadi","given":"Dirarini","non-dropping-particle":"","parse-names":false,"suffix":""}],"container-title":"Cakrawala Management Business Journal","id":"ITEM-1","issue":"2","issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]},"page":"340","title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Dengan Metode Eoq Usaha Stan Kayu Sinar Sowi Kabupaten Manokwari","type":"article-journal","volume":"2"},"uris":["http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=aaf73bbb-280b-4fc5-9090-c5cee0ffeac7"]}],"mendeley":{"formattedCitation":"[22]","plainTextFormattedCitation":"[22]","previouslyFormattedCitation":"(Pratama et al., 2020)"},"properties":{"noteIndex":0},"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[22] yang menyatakan bahwa penerapan EOQ dapat meningkatkan efisiensi biaya persediaan. Namun demikian, model EOQ memiliki keterbatasan karena mengasumsikan permintaan yang relatif stabil, sementara dalam kondisi aktual permintaan bersifat fluktuatif.Secara implikatif, perusahaan dapat menggunakan EOQ sebagai dasar dalam menentukan jumlah pemesanan yang lebih efisien. Namun, dalam implementasinya perlu dikombinasikan dengan hasil forecasting agar lebih adaptif terhadap perubahan permintaan.KesimpulanBerdasarkan hasil penelitian, integrasi metode ABC Analysis, Forecasting, dan Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) terbukti mampu memberikan gambaran yang lebih komprehensif dan akurat dalam pengendalian persediaan packing material pada industri flexible packaging. Hasil analisis ABC menunjukkan bahwa material PLY merupakan kategori A dengan kontribusi nilai investasi tertinggi sebesar 64,53%, sehingga layak menjadi prioritas utama dalam pengawasan persediaan. Selanjutnya, hasil Forecasting terhadap material Plywood Multi 0280x0280x09 dia 77 menunjukkan bahwa metode Weighted Moving Average (WMA) memberikan tingkat akurasi terbaik dengan nilai MAPE 15,81%, lebih rendah dibandingkan Simple Average, Moving Average, maupun Single Exponential Smoothing . Hal ini menegaskan bahwa pemberian bobot pada data terbaru lebih sesuai untuk pola penggunaan material yang fluktuatif. Setelah kebutuhan material berhasil diprediksi, perhitungan EOQ menghasilkan jumlah pemesanan optimal yang jauh lebih efisien, yaitu 15.849 unit untuk Plywood Multi 0280x0280x09 dia 77, 13.273 unit untuk Plywood Multi 0310x0310x09 dia 77, 6.992 unit untuk Plywood Multi 0365x0365x09 dia 77, dan 5.875 unit untuk Plywood Multi 0365x0385x12 dia 77. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pemesanan dalam jumlah optimal dapat menurunkan biaya persediaan secara signifikan sekaligus mengurangi risiko stockout.ReferensiADDIN Mendeley Bibliography CSL_BIBLIOGRAPHY [1]A. R. Fadylla and F. N. 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No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these termsAMUW2mWnFdB0y1UpOmzRRoEe2yBwtv8yxYDeF333TgX2kaxGGsSkWeYSUKmNWjNXon7OVfeFCV4rGgv3oKWVGh8xeUBwym+KvdXRgh7aTO+zAaZtqzcPlm8mM5YIpQLWOMWXIbyE77FOReviewernashr22026-04-22T06:13:00Z2026-04-22T06:14:00Z2026-04-22T06:14:00Z5821024119839Microsoft Office Word0998281falseTitle1homefalse140582falsefalse16.0000http://www.zotero.org/styles/american-political-science-associationAmerican Political Science Associationhttp://www.zotero.org/styles/apaAmerican Psychological Association 7th editionhttp://www.zotero.org/styles/american-sociological-associationAmerican Sociological Association 6th/7th editionhttp://www.zotero.org/styles/chicago-author-dateChicago Manual of Style 17th edition (author-date)http://www.zotero.org/styles/harvard-cite-them-rightCite Them Right 12th edition - Harvardhttp://www.zotero.org/styles/harvard1Harvard reference format 1 (deprecated)http://www.zotero.org/styles/ieeeIEEEhttp://www.zotero.org/styles/modern-humanities-research-associationModern Humanities Research Association 4th edition (note with bibliography)http://www.zotero.org/styles/modern-language-associationModern Language Association 9th editionhttp://www.zotero.org/styles/natureNatureTrue2142e751-ee39-33ae-a571-7b549c218602http://www.zotero.org/styles/ieee